Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
